Hayden Winks Fantasy Analyst Tue, November 3, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC · 14 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Fantasy football is inundated with stats and charts (guilty!), but the more context the film provides, the more reliable the data gets. That's why we have a 2.5-hour show called Stats vs. Film every Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET. That show is live — join us in the chat!
This weekly column will look at some of the biggest storylines I picked up by grinding the film.
Previous versions of this column have broken down Colston Loveland's first-read targets and Luther Burden III's exact role in the Bears offense, but Odunze is the forgotten man right now and he feels on the verge of a big game. On Monday Night Football, Odunze had a 4-87-0 line on an 18% target share. That is in line with bye-week WR3/4 value as a baseline, but can it be more?
Odunze is WR3 in 15+ yard receptions (19), only behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tee Higgins. Of the 19 WRs to have at least 11 explosive receptions, Odunze is the lone player to not have a TD on them. What he's done is impossible to do and a very obvious positive regression sign. In this last game, Caleb Williams happened to miss him on a double move go ball heading into halftime that would've been a 50+ yard TD. Odunze has had his fair share of inexcusable drops that should've been scores, but these are the things that should even out moving forward.
The positive plays Monday are what they typically are. He had a 12-personnel dig route on play action where he added a little fake to the outside at the top of his stem for extra separation. These looks are very valuable because there are often 2.5 players in the route, and these throws are often farther down the field. He also had a scramble drill explosive, something that's baked in with Williams being among the best at creating out of structure.
Ben Johnson found a "trick play" that is really easy to execute, but it's enough eye candy for the defense to get lost in the sauce. When D'Andre Swift flips the ball to Caleb, the entire defensive line stops rushing the passer as usual, which gives him extra time and extra space to throw it. The second level zone defenders are also biting and eyeing Swift in the flats more than usual, allowing more space for Odunze to execute his dig route. This is the perfect trick play to me. The risk of ruin is minimized, while still giving the defense something they rarely see.
(Hayden Winks) Quickly on Burden, he played 3 of 21 snaps in heavy personnel. When the Bears established a lead, they went away from 3-WR sets, which is partially explaining the massive splits between halves for Burden this season. He's the WR3 in yards per route in the first half and the WR61 in the second half. When Johnson hasn't isolated him on a first read, the results are worse. That's the reality of a physically dominant yet in-development player. Burden is the WR17 on WR23 usage in games with Caleb this year, so it's no reason to really panic. He's an upside WR2/3 despite the obvious inconsistency.
The backfield is set. Emanuel Wilson was active but didn't play and is on track to be a healthy scratch moving forward, leaving Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price and George Holani as the active players. Charbonnet started and played 37% of snaps, leading to 11.6 expected half PPR points (RB22 usage). Price played 48% of snaps, leading to 9.9 expected half PPR points (RB30). Holani played 17%. The trio played on both early and late downs, pass protected, ran routes and carried the ball. It's officially a "let-the-best-man-win" committee, for an organization that held back Kenneth Walker III for years.
So who looked the best? Take a look at this:
Athletically, it's a no contest. Price is so much faster in a straight line and laterally agile. The speed difference is evident on the outside runs, while the lateral ability is easier to see on the cutback runs. That's not the end all, be all, but it absolutely does matter and it's unlikely to change with Charbonnet coming off a February ACL surgery. Price was the one to receive the pitch on a sweep, so the coaching staff obviously agrees.
That said, Price did have two reps where he probably could've done a lot more with the look. One of them was by not giving his center the time to climb to the next level. He instead jammed into a crowded lane, where a more patient and crafty runner would've cut back for a nice gain. The other rep was attempting to bounce it outside of nickel CB Kyler Gordon, when he could've hit his inside shoulder hard for a potential nice gain. Neither were egregious, but the top-end veterans treat them differently.
Charbonnet's runs were more textbook, but there was space to carve out real explosives if he was simply faster. Both of the runs in the video above showcase that glaring flaw. I'd understand it if they'll always value Charbonnet's size and quality decision making in short yardage, but the Seahawks would do well if they continued giving Price a lot of the early down and between the 20s runs to increase their odds of an explosive and to give Price more time on task to develop.
Beyond that, the Seahawks have a very obvious WR depth problem. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is so good that he'll get home regardless, but teams are either straight-up bracketing him or shading a safety over the top of him on most reps. Sam Darnold isn't seeing the field well after the first read, and the depth pass-catchers aren't talented enough to make the reads clearer. It's part of the reason why JSN's role is slightly more underneath this year and very much why Darnold isn't playing nearly as well in 2026. I don't think this is OC Brian Fleury's issue per se, but they need to find another WR at the deadline or find a breakout at RB to counteract this glaring pass-game issue.
The Rams offense has looked a lot different this past month. A lot of that is having zero depth at WR to overcome the Davante Adams injury, but I'm not convinced that's the entire story here.
From Weeks 5-8, Stafford is 1 of 9 on throws with 20+ air yards. The 11% completion percentage and raw completions are obviously alarming but so is the attempt total! He is QB27 in deep attempts on QB6 total attempts during this four-game span.
On tape, Stafford doesn't look fully healthy right now. Some of his sideline and downfield attempts lack his usual zip, and his throwing motion is feeling a little more Philip Rivers-like. He had a sideline completion to TuTu Atwell, but even that one really could've been a score had he led him more. That was more of a line drive that went to his inside shoulder that caused him to hit the brakes a bit. Some of his throws on the move are drifting low and away. And then other throws that are to the intermediate aren't coming with his normal spot-on accuracy.
I wasn't surprised to see Monday's report that his elbow is sore. That's what his throwing motion looks like right now, and the offense being extremely quick-hitting right now is further evidence of just that.
He's fantasy QB16 right now, and I'm not sure if the Rams 3-TE set offense with Puka Nacua working on a 3.4 average depth of target sans Adams is one that's going to lead to massive fantasy days, even if the offense is still moving the ball well. The margins are just a lot tighter in this current offense, and the defense is good enough to keep games on the lower end.
On the Nacua front, he hasn't had a reception of 20+ air yards since Week 4 and has had one target of 15+ air yards in the two most recent games. He's probably not comfortable completely opening up his stride on downfield routes right now, paired with whatever is up with Stafford's elbow. That's OK. He's still the WR3 overall on WR1 usage since returning in Week 4 and is up to 41% targets in the two games without Adams. That'll do.
I still can't believe Lamar Jackson is headed to IR because of a damn thumb injury on the first snap of a showdown with Josh Allen. For Tyler Huntley (turf toe) to also go down is all the more sickening. The Ravens play on Thursday night, so it's too quick to make a move for a Jacoby Brissett or other veteran QB. They'll see what they have with Fagnano again, and it'll be an uphill climb with the Jaguars defense on deck.
Fagnano is a big (6-foot-3, 230 pounds) statue quarterback from UConn, where he finished last year with a 28:1 TD:INT ratio. He went undrafted and has been the QB3 despite not matching up with the Ravens' athletic QB room. He is definitely more of a pocket passer who will struggle to throw on the move or scramble around. That is doubly true now that he's practicing with an ankle brace on . The Declan Doyle offense doesn't need a Lamar Jackson-level athlete to execute, but the margins are tighter, especially behind an offensive line that is in pretty rough shape.
Quickly on that, new center Cam Jurgens has to do a better job of picking up stunts and games. There were too many wasted reps on that alone, and the rest of the right side of the line also had their own issues on one-on-one opportunities. The Ravens really need first-round left guard Vega Ioane back, and he has a chance to return this week.
Fagnano did have a couple of really nice completions to the sideline. They came with anticipation and quality arm talent. That's encouraging in what should be a heavy dropback environment in Week 9 with Jacksonville's defense facing the highest neutral pass rate allowed. Fagnano does look like he can stretch the field horizontally at the very least.
Zay Flowers does a lot of his damage over the middle. It was not Flowers' best work in Week 8. He had a drop on a shallow with room to run. He also fell down on a 3rd-and-8 first-read look before a target was thrown to him. The Bills also bracketed him on another key third down, leading to an incompletion. Fagnano did attempt a big sideline throw to him, but an edge rusher knocked the ball upon release. His lone interception was to Flowers, where he simply stared him down, allowing a zone linebacker to slide his way. My takeaway coming from this game is there is more of a chance for fantasy points for Flowers than what his goose egg would suggest. Fagnano appears to understand the assignment of throwing it to Flowers when he can, but the Jaguars defense will have Travis Hunter and a well-coached defense to squat on these middle-of-the-field throws.
I'd view Flowers as a fantasy starter but more of the WR3 variety than a must start. Here are his splits without Jackson since last year. Please note that last week did fall into the "with" Jackson game. The true split is closer to 13.5 versus 10.5.
Derrick Henry's splits are also problematic. He's the RB28 on RB17 usage this month without Jackson, and his efficiency is night and day depending on if the star QB is out there to threaten defenses himself. I don't trust the OL talent when they simply line up under center, and Henry is far more likely to be phased out due to game script now. He takes the bigger positional tumble in rankings without Jackson and with the Jaguars' dominant run defense. The Ravens have a pathetic team total:
(Hayden Winks) Everyone is to blame on the Vikings Everyone. The scale I'm using is: Is Justin Jefferson happy? There's no reason he shouldn't be, as very clearly one of the best players in the NFL. Well, right now he's mad and not speaking to the media. Meanwhile, Kevin O'Connell is talking and making pretty direct comments about Kyler Murray: "I thought he made some big-time throws. There were some positives, but there are still some plays we're leaving out there that will help with the overall rhythm of the game. We've gotta continue to find the best way to get him comfortable."
Agree!!! There are some turned down throws beyond his first read, like this one to Jefferson:
Then there are inaccuracies. Murray had a touchdown opportunity up the seam on a correct backside read, but he sailed it. The play below was out of structure, but it's the same result. Sailed. In previous weeks, his intermediate timing-paced routes to Jefferson were missed. Murray has never been considered perfect on these intermediate throws, but this is a step down from his usual for whatever reason.
O'Connell is also on my radar. Even during the Sam Darnold high-flying era, O'Connell left his QB out to dry by asking him to hold onto the ball for downfield concepts without a checkdown available. This is a very difficult offense to run, and it needs an aggressive thrower with stars at receiver to execute. This OL is solid, but it's not elite, making the holding onto the ball part harder.
KOC also doesn't do enough to protect Jefferson when teams are doubling him. The Lions did a great job with Jefferson in Week 8 by playing outside leverage with a CB at the line and sinking a safety to the inside. Jefferson isn't in stacks, in motion, or on the backside of these concepts enough to overcome what is a pretty obvious way to handle this Vikings offense. Murray can't simply throw it up to him in these looks without risk of an interception. The Jordan Addison routes are too often derailed, too. If he played like a first-round WR, then Jefferson wouldn't see these looks nearly as often. This is how Tee Higgins is producing like a top-five receiver in a similar situation.
Jefferson has, by far, the least blame, but he did drop a pass and could've made a highlight touchdown grab up the seam in this past game. He has a 78-855-5 receiving line over his last 17 games for a 50 YPG average. He was at 96 YPG before that. His effort dipped at times throughout this span, but it hasn't been an issue this year. I totally understand if his frustrations start to spill over if this doesn't get corrected. In the meantime, Jefferson has lost his fantasy WR1 label. He's a boom-bust WR2 while the Vikings dip to 31st in passing yards per game on the No. 25 neutral pass rate.
Source: Sports
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